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R&D

Indonesia GDP

Indonesia GDP

Section titled “Indonesia GDP”

Level (2025)

Section titled “Level (2025)”
Metric Value
Nominal GDP (World Bank, current US$) US$1,445.6bn (~$1.45T)
Nominal GDP (BPS, market prices) IDR 23,821.1 trillion
Per capita IDR 83.7M / USD 5,083
Real growth 2025 5.11% (2024: 5.03%)
2045 target $9.8T nominal, GNI/capita $30,300

Real growth (y/y, BPS)

Section titled “Real growth (y/y, BPS)”
420-24.885.035.075.175.02-2.073.705.315.055.035.115.615.295.420152016201720182019202020212022202320242025Q1-26Q2-26Q3-26f

Annual (completed years)

Section titled “Annual (completed years)”
Year Growth Year Growth
2015 4.88% 2021 3.70%
2016 5.03% 2022 5.31%
2017 5.07% 2023 5.05%
2018 5.17% 2024 5.03%
2019 5.02% 2025 5.11%
2020 −2.07% 2026 H1 5.45% (c/c), Q3 pending

Quarterly

Section titled “Quarterly”
Quarter y/y q/q Note
Q1-25 4.87% —
Q2-25 5.12% +4.04% H1-25: 4.99% c/c
Q3-25 5.04% +1.43% 9M-25: 5.01% c/c
Q4-25 5.39% +0.86% FY25: 5.11%
Q1-26 5.61% −0.77% nominal IDR 6,187.2tn; gov spending +21.81% y/y (Eid, front-load)
Q2-26 5.29% +3.73% nominal IDR 6,552.1tn; H1-26: 5.45% c/c; gov spending +15.97% (13th-month salary, MBG)
Q3-26 not released — BPS ~5 Nov 2026

Bars: annual growth for completed years (2015–2025), quarterly for 2026 (year not finished — divider). 2020 = COVID contraction. Dashed bar = government projection, not BPS data.

2026 forecasts (April 2026 vintage)

Section titled “2026 forecasts (April 2026 vintage)”
  • ADB: 5.2% (also 2027)
  • IMF: 5.0%
  • World Bank: 4.7% (oil price drag)
  • Government target: 5.4% (optimistic case)
  • BI range: 4.9–5.7%; BI-Rate held at 5.75%
  • KBVS/consensus 2H26: 5.0–5.2%

Q3-26 estimates (unofficial, pre-release)

Section titled “Q3-26 estimates (unofficial, pre-release)”
  • Purbaya (Menkeu): ~5.4%+, “mendekati 5.6%”, Q4 near 6%
  • Suahasil: H2-26 above 5.5%
  • Signals (1 Oct 2026): PMI 52 (back to expansion from 49), inflation 3.19% (Aug), trade surplus, credit +13% y/y, money supply +16.3% y/y (Aug)

Quality-of-growth caveat

Section titled “Quality-of-growth caveat”

LPEM FEB UI: Q2-26 growth was fiscal-driven. Excluding government consumption it was 4.52%; ex gov consumption + vehicle GFCF, only 3.13%. HP-filtered trend: 4.97%. Structural growth argued to be below 5%.

10 years ago (2015)

Section titled “10 years ago (2015)”
Metric 2015 2025
Real growth 4.88% revised (4.79% as first released; 2014: 5.02%) 5.11%
Nominal GDP (BPS) IDR 11,540.8tn IDR 23,821.1tn
Per capita Rp45.2M / USD 3,377 Rp83.7M / USD 5,083

2015 quarters (y/y, as released): Q1 4.73%, Q2 4.66%, Q3 4.74%, Q4 5.04% — the full-year 4.79% (later revised to 4.88%) was the decade low; commodity prices and rupiah drove the slowdown.

Sources

Section titled “Sources”
  • BPS press releases (5 May 2026, 5 Aug 2026, 5 Feb 2026, 5 Nov 2025, 5 Aug 2025)
  • World Bank WDI, ADB ADO April 2026, IMF WEO April 2026
  • KBVS GDP note (5 Aug 2026), LPEM FEB UI IEO Q3-2026
  • ANTARA (BI Governor), CNBC Indonesia (Suahasil, 1 Oct 2026)

Pages

Section titled “Pages”